Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis (MOCA) Software

[Download MOCA and Documentation]

The software on this web site was developed by the CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Consortium at the University of Maryland.  MOCA development has been supported by the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratories and Wright-Patterson AFB via the ManTech Sustainment Initiative, Manufacturing for Sustainment (Electronic Part Obsolescence Initiative) under contract F33615-99-2-5503; the CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center; and the National Science Foundation (Division of Design, Manufacture, and Industrial Innovation) Grant No. DMI-0438522.

The rapid growth of the electronics industry has spurred dramatic changes in electronic parts. Increases in speed, reductions in feature size and supply voltage, and changes in interconnection and packaging technologies are becoming events that occur almost monthly. Consequently, many of the electronic parts that compose a product have life cycles that are significantly shorter than the life cycle of the product. This life cycle mismatch problem requires that during design, engineers be cognizant of which parts will be available and which parts may be obsolete during a product’s life. This problem is especially prevalent in avionics and military systems, where systems may encounter obsolescence problems before being fielded and nearly always experience obsolescence problems during their field life. This problem is exacerbated by manufacturing that takes place over long periods of time, and the high cost of system re-qualification that makes the design refreshes extremely expensive.

Many part obsolescence mitigation strategies exist including: life time buy, last-time buy, part replacement, aftermarket source, uprating, emulation, re-engineering, salvage, and ultimately redesign of the system. Design refresh (or redesign) has the advantage of treating multiple existing and anticipated obsolescence problems concurrently and additionally allows for functional upgrades. Unfortunately, design refresh is also often a very expensive option, not just in non-recurring engineering costs, but also in potential system re-qualification costs.

The MOCA Software Tool

A methodology and it’s implementation (MOCA) has been developed for determining the part obsolescence impact on life cycle sustainment costs for the long field life electronic systems based on future production projections, maintenance requirements and part obsolescence forecasts (Figure 1). Based on a detailed cost analysis model, the methodology determines the optimum design refresh plan during the field-support-life of the product. The design refresh plan consists of the number of design refresh activities, their respective calendar dates and content to minimize the life cycle sustainment cost of the product. The methodology supports user determined short- and long-term obsolescence mitigation approaches on a per part basis, variable look-ahead times associated with design refreshes, and allows for inputs to be specified as probability distributions that can vary with time. Outputs from this analysis are used as inputs to the PRICE Systems PRICE H/L commercial software tools for predicting life cycle costs of systems.

Figure 1  High-level overview of MOCA’s functionality.

Additional details of the model formulations and examples produced using the model can be found in the following publications:

	J. Myers and P. Sandborn, "Integration of Technology Roadmapping Information and Business Case Development into DMSMS-Driven Design Refresh Planning of the V-22 Advanced Mission Computer," Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference, Palm Springs, CA, April 2007.
	P. Singh and P. Sandborn, "Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Planning for Sustainment-Dominated Systems," The Engineering Economist, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 115-139, April-June 2006.
	P. Singh and P. Sandborn, “Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronic Systems,” Proc. Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, Arlington, VA, Jan. 2005.
	P. Sandborn, "Beyond Reactive Thinking – We Should be Developing Pro-Active Approaches to Obsolescence Management Too!," DMSMS Center of Excellence Newsletter, Vol. 2, Issue 3, pp. 4, 9, July 2004.
	P. Singh, P. Sandborn, T. Geiser, and D. Lorenson, "Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Planning," International Journal of Agile Manufacturing, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 23-32, 2004.
	P. Singh, P. Sandborn, T. Geiser, and D. Lorenson, "Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Optimization," Proc. International Conference on Concurrent Engineering, pp. 961-970, Cranfield University, UK, July 2002.
	P. Singh, P. Sandborn, D. Lorenson, and T. Geiser, "Determining Optimum Redesign Plans for Avionics Considering Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasts," in Proc. World Aviation Congress, Phoenix, AZ, November 2002.  (SAE Technical Paper: 2002-1-3012)
	P. Sandborn and P. Singh, "Electronic Part Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Optimization," in Proc. FAA/DoD/NASA Aging Aircraft Conference, San Francisco, CA, September 2002.
	P. Sandborn, P. Singh, T. Herald, and J. Houston, "Optimum Technology Insertion into Systems Based on the Assessment of Viability," IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Vol. 26, No. 4, 2003
	MOCA Brochure
	MOCA (Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis) software tool wins 2002 University of Maryland Information Sciences Invention of the Year, Press Release (April 28, 2003)
	PartMiner licenses electronic part obsolescence forecasting algorithms from the University of Maryland, Press Release (October 16, 2003)

Download MOCA Software and Documentation

 The MOCA software application and associated documentation can be downloaded from the following links.  You will be queried for a CALCE login and password when downloading the materials below.  If you do not have a login and password please contact sandborn@calce.umd.edu; at this time appropriate logins and passwords are available only for CALCE members and other organizations associated with the development of the MOCA tool.  Note, the newest version of MOCA is at the top of the table.

If you are having problems getting the MOCA application to start-up, click here.

Important Note:  At this time, the application is only for Windows operating system machines.

Release Date	MOCA Application Software Version	Documentation	Release Notes
June 21, 2007	Version 2.3 If you downloaded MOCA but it won't start-up when you double click on the application - click here!	MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.3 is applicable and complete for this version.  MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.3	Known Bugs What's New New Features: Automated business case analysis Automatic application of solution constraints
December 21, 2005	Version 2.2 If you downloaded MOCA but it won't start-up when you double click on the application - click here!	MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.1 is applicable for this version.  In addition a supplement is available that documents new functionality. MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.1 MOCA User's Guide Supplement, Version 2.2	Known Bugs New Features: Plotting costs as a function of time Defining and applying budget constraints Storage and handling costs for lifetime buy and last time buy parts Computing confidence levels for differences between solutions Sensitivity analysis for look-ahead times
July 18, 2005	Version 2.1 Version 2.1 + installation file* (10/31/05) *includes optional installation program that can be used in place of the installation instructions in Chapter 2 of the User's Guide. If you downloaded MOCA but it won't start-up when you double click on the application - click here!	MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.1 is applicable and complete for this version.  MOCA User's Guide, Version 2.1	Known Bugs Bug Fixes/New Features: Cleaned up version of MOCA 2.0 with complete documentation Refresh duration parameter added Retrofit sparing analysis corrected and extended Poet interface enhancements Optional interfaces to part-specific Bayesian (development version Decision Network generation an execution (development version) Integration with NSWC Horizon tool suite (development version) Cost plotting of system costs and single installation costs Specification of unique end of support dates on system production events Expanded Poet interface Non-COM interface to PRICE Systems tools PRICE-S integration (development version)
September 8, 2004	Version 1.3.2 NOTE: The example data files referred to in Chapter 3 of the Version 1.3 MOCA documentation are not included within the Version 1.3.2 download.  If you wish to have access to the example data files you must contact CALCE using the email at the bottom of this page. If you downloaded MOCA but it won't start-up when you double click on the application - click here!	MOCA User's Guide, Version 1.3 is applicable and complete for this version.  MOCA User's Guide, Version 1.3 Q-Star Import Documentation	Bug Fixes/New Features: Parsers to allow import of Q-Star reports. This is the most recent version of the MOCA tool that uses the COM interface to the PRICE Systems tools.

For questions or problems contact:  sandborn@calce.umd.edu