The rapid growth of the electronics industry has spurred dramatic changes in the electronic parts that comprise the products and systems that the public buys. Increases in speed, reductions in feature size and supply voltage, and changes in interconnection and packaging technologies are becoming events that occur nearly monthly. Consequently, many of the electronic parts that compose a product have a life cycle that is significantly shorter than the life cycle of the product they go into. A part becomes obsolete when it is no longer manufactured, either because demand has dropped to low enough levels that it is not practical for manufacturers to continue to make it, or because the materials or technologies necessary to produce it are no longer available.

If a product requires a long application life, then a parts obsolescence management strategy may be required.  Many obsolescence mitigation approaches have been proposed and are being used. These approaches include: lifetime or last time buys, part substitution, and redesign. Several other mitigation approaches are also practical in some situations: aftermarket sources, emulation, reclaim, and uprating. This course reviews the various mitigation approaches, and available methods of forecasting the obsolescence of parts.  In addition, pro-active methods for managing obsolescence are discussed, including design refresh planning and the use of ASICs. The course is divided into 6 sections that cover:

• System Sustainment
• Introduction to Electronic Part Obsolescence
• Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting
• Electronic Part Obsolescence Mitigation
• Strategic Obsolescence Management
• Software Obsolescence

The course includes a review of commercial databases and associated decision support tool offerings.  A more detailed outline of the course is available here. For more information on the course, contact Peter Sandborn at 301-405-3167 or sandborn@calce.umd.edu

Introduction

• Obsolescence Definition
• Sustainable Systems

System Sustainment

• Elements of Sustainment and Examples
• Long Field Life Electronic Systems
• Life Cycle Phases of Sustainment-Dominated Systems and Costs
• The Sustainment Vicious Circle
• Sustainment Responsibilites

Electronic Part Obsolescence

• Life Cycle Mismatch and COTS
• Acquisition Reform and DMSMS
• Understanding the Obsolescence Problem
• Cost Impact of Obsolescence
• Life Cycle Phases of Electronic Components
• What Happens When a Part Goes Obsolete?
• More Than Just Parts (Software, Requirements, IP) Systems

Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting

• Understanding the Data (status vs. life cycle risk vs. availability)
• Obsolescence Status and Forecasting Players
  • Content Providers (i2, PartMiner, IHS, Arrow, QinetiQ, SiliconExpert, SMART, ...)
  • Content Managers (Avnet, Total Parts Plus, AVCOM, Precience, Arrow, QTEC, ...)
  • Notice Collectors (GIDEP, PCNAlert, Arrow, NOC, ...)
  • Service Providers
  • Forecasters (SHAI, TACTech, QTEC, MTI, CALCE)
• Hybrid Sales Data Forecasting Algorithms
• Leading Indicator Forecasting Algorithms
• ASIC Obsolescence
• Non-Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting

Electronic Part Obsolescence Mitigation

• Original Part Selection Guidelines
• What to do When a Part Becomes Obsolete
• Mitigation Approaches:
  • Negotiate with manufacturer
  • Lifetime buys
  • Last time (bridge) buys
  • Alternative and substitute parts
  • Uprating
  • Aftermarket sources
  • Procurement specialists (Brokers)
  • Counterfeit parts
  • Emulation (GEM)
  • Reclaim
  • Reverse engineering
  • Reengineering approaches
  • Redesign
  • Availability assurance (Sunset suppliers)
• Choosing a Mitigation Approach
• ASIC and Gate Array Obsolescence Mitigation
• Obsolescence Mitigation Assistance Tools:
• Relative Costs of Mitigation Approaches
• Industry Groups and Other Resources

Software Obsolescence

• Definitions
• Mitigation

Strategic Part Obsolescence Management (Life Cycle Planning)

• Introduction to Lifecycle Optimization
• Last Time Buy vs. Redesign (cost-based models)
• Design Refresh Planning (price-based models)
• Introduction to the MOCA (Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis) tool
• Financial Models
• Reengineering Tools
• Life Cycle Costing Tools

For more information on the course, contact Peter Sandborn at 301-405-3167 or sandborn@calce.umd.edu

Portions of the obsolescence course have been presented in conjunction with other CALCE courses to:

Links and Books

• CALCE Electronic Part Obsolescence Research Summary
• Parts Selection and Management
• Life Cycle Forecasting, Mitigation Assessment and Obsolescence Strategies
• Influence of Temperature on Microelectronics and System Reliability: A Physics of Failure Approach
• High Temperature Electronics