Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting

Mitigation and Management

Course Overview
Course Outline
Past Customers
Related Links and Texts

Instructors
Contact


Course Overview

This course reviews DMSMS management best practices, the various mitigation approaches, and available methods of forecasting the obsolescence of parts.  In addition, pro-active methods for managing obsolescence are discussed, including design refresh planning and the use of ASICs. The course is divided into 6 sections that cover:

  • Introduction to Electronic Part Obsolescence
  • Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting
  • Electronic Part Obsolescence Mitigation
  • Obsolescence Management Plan and Case Resolution
  • Strategic Obsolescence Management
  • Electronic Part Total Ownership Cost Modeling
  • Software Obsolescence

The course includes a review of commercial databases and associated decision support tool offerings.

 

Course Outline

1. Introduction

  • Obsolescence Definition
  • Sustainable Systems

2. Electronic Part Obsolescence

  • Life Cycle Mismatch and COTS
  • Acquisition Reform and DMSMS
  • Understanding the Obsolescence Problem
  • Cost Impact of Obsolescence
  • Life Cycle Phases of Electronic Components
  • What Happens When a Part Goes Obsolete?
  • More Than Just Parts (Software, Requirements, IP) Systems

3. Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting

  • Understanding the Data (status vs. life cycle risk vs. availability)
  • Obsolescence Status and Forecasting Players
    • Content Providers (i2, PartMiner, IHS, Arrow, QinetiQ, SiliconExpert, SMART, ...)
    • Content Managers (Avnet, Total Parts Plus, AVCOM, Precience, Arrow, QTEC, ...)
    • Notice Collectors (GIDEP, PCNAlert, Arrow, NOC, ...)
    • Service Providers
    • Forecasting Approaches (SHAI, TACTech, QTEC, MTI, CALCE)
  • Hybrid Sales Data Forecasting Algorithms
  • Procurement Life Forecasting
  • Leading Indicator Forecasting Algorithms
  • ASIC Obsolescence
  • Lead-Free Parts
  • Non-Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting

4. Electronic Part Obsolescence Mitigation

  • Original Part Selection Guidelines
  • What to do When a Part Becomes Obsolete
  • Mitigation Approaches:
    • Negotiate with manufacturer
    • Lifetime buys
    • Last time (bridge) buys
    • Alternative and substitute parts
    • Uprating
    • Aftermarket sources
    • Procurement specialists (Brokers)
    • Counterfeit parts
    • Emulation (GEM)
    • Reclaim
    • Reverse engineering
    • Reengineering approaches
    • Redesign
    • Availability assurance (Sunset suppliers)
  • Long-Term Storage of Electronic Parts
  • Counterfeit Parts
  • Choosing a Mitigation Approach
  • ASIC and Gate Array Obsolescence Mitigation
  • Relative Costs of Mitigation Approaches
  • Industry Groups and Other Resources

5. Obsolescence Planning and Case Resolution

  • Management plan content and processes
  • Contract language
  • Measuring system health
    • Progress Indicators
    • Cost Avoidance Metrics
    • Return on Investment Calculations

6. Strategic Part Obsolescence Management (Life Cycle Planning)

  • Introduction to Lifecycle Optimization
  • Last Time Buy vs. Redesign (cost-based models)
  • Design Refresh Planning (price-based models)
    • Introduction to the MOCA (Mitigation of Obsolescence Cost Analysis) tool
  • Business Case Development
  • Material Risk Index Approaches

7. Electronic Part Total Ownership Cost Modeling

  • Part Selection and Management Group Perspective
  • Procurement vs. Life Cycle Costs
  • Single vs. Second Sourcing Tradeoffs

8. Software Obsolescence

  • Definitions
  • Mitigation

 

Past Customers

  • BAE Systems - United Kingdom
  • Cummins, Inc. - Indiana
  • Digi-Key Corp.
  • DRS Optronics, Inc. - Florida
  • Emerson - Ohio; China
  • GDCA, Inc.
  • Harris and FAA - Washington, DC
  • Honeywell - Missouri
  • Invensys - Massachusetts
  • Joint Strike Fighter Program Office - Virginia
  • Kollmorgen - Massachusetts
  • LG Electronics - South Korea
  • Lockheed Martin - Texas

 

  • Marshall Aerospace Canada
  • Meggitt SA
  • Microsoft - Washington
  • Motorola - Illinois
  • Navy SSDS/ACDS COTS Working Group - Virginia
  • NAWC-WD
  • Northrop Grumman
  • Nortel Networks - Canada
  • Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics - New York
  • Rafael - Israel
  • Raydon Corporation - Florida
  • Raytheon
  • SiliconExpert Technologies - Egypt

 

  • Sikorsky Aircraft
  • Smiths Industries - United Kingdom
  • SMTA Counterfeit Conference - Maryland
  • Storage Technology Corporation - Colorado
  • TCS Space & Component Technology
  • Tubitak-Uzay (Space Technologies Research Institute) - Turkey
  • UK Ministry of Defence - United Kingdom
  • United Defense - Minnesota
  • US Coast Guard Research and Development Center - Connecticut
  • Wartsila Corporation - Finland

 

 

Related Links and Texts

 

Contact


Peter Sandborn
301-405-3167
sandborn@calce.umd.edu
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742


 

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