Articles from CALCE News

 Fall/Winter 2004 issue


Integrated Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Electronic Products and Systems

For the past five years, the CALCE EPSC has been conducting research on health monitoring and prognostics for electronic systems. The purpose is to provide advance warning of failure as a means to enhance product sustainment, maintenance, reuse, and take-back.

CALCE’s strategies include (i) use of sensor technologies with physics-of-failure analysis to assess real-time life consumption monitoring of electronic systems; (ii) use of diagnostic built-in-test (BIT) software-firmware systems to identify and locate faults that incorporate error detection and correction circuits and self-checking and self-verification circuits; (iii) use of in-situ semiconductor prognostic monitors consisting of pre-calibrated cells (circuits) to predict remaining life due to semiconductor faults, defects, and failure mechanisms; and (iv) use of software modules (data collection, simplification and damage accumulation and remaining life estimation) to support environment and usage data collection that enables health management.

CALCE has already conducted a remaining life assessment of the space shuttle remote manipulator system electronics for NASA. We are now conducting health and life assessment for the space shuttle rocket booster electronics hardware.

CALCE’s methodologies have also been successfully demonstrated for an electronic board operating in an automotive underhood environment. In contrast to traditionally-used electronics reliability prediction methods, the CALCE methodology was shown to effectively predict remaining life.

Current research at the Center focuses on developing an integrated hardware-software solution that can enable real-time health and usage monitoring of electronic products in the application environment. Software takes environmental and operational sensor data as input, and processes it using data-reduction and cycle-counting algorithms to predict the remaining life of the product using appropriate stress-damage models.

CALCE’s vision for the future is to develop micro-programmable modules that will enable health monitoring and prognostics of electronics. In addition, CALCE is investigating biological systems and health improvement monitoring methods to address conditions such as diabetes.

For further information on these efforts, please contact Prof. M. Pecht or Dr. P. Rodgers at 301-405-5323.
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Reliability Training for Companies

CALCE EPSC has conducted a five-week training for eight quality and reliability engineers from Samsung Electronics in Korea and a three-week training for reliability and quality managers of Emerson Network Power in China.

The training included a reliability short course covering reliability concepts, probability distributions and statistics, design for reliability, reliability prediction, part selection and management, product qualification, accelerated testing, failure modes, mechanisms, and effects analysis (FMMEA), failure/root cause analysis, derating, screening and burn-in, and virtual qualification. Included were also lectures on special reliability issues of interest to each company, such as thermal effects on product reliability, electrostatic discharge (ESD) failures in microelectronics, intermittent failure, electronic product health/life consumption monitoring methodology, lead-free solders and tin whiskers, reliability management, and thermal/vibration analysis using calcePWA reliability software. Samsung Electronics has a plan to continue training its engineers through CALCE industry courses.

Similar targeted training programs can be arranged for your organization. For more information on the patent management software, contact Prof. Michael Pecht.
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CALCE EPSC Long-term Lead-free Reliability Studies

The electronics industry is migrating to lead-free electronics, both to comply with government legislation and to increase market share through product differentiation. Considering that lead-based electronics have been in use for over 50 years, the adoption of lead-free technology represents a major change. The manufacturing of lead-free electronic products involves assembling lead-free components to lead-free printed circuit boards using lead-free solder alloys. Key issues that are being addressed by academia and industry include lead-free solder alloy selection, characterization of its properties and behavior under various stress loading conditions, lead-free manufacturing, logistics and intellectual property issues, and lead-free assembly reliability assessment.

There are abundant data on the short-term durability (less than 5 years) of lead-free solder joints under single loading conditions. However, data on combined loading conditions and long-term durability is scarce. The lead-free electronics will be deployed in many products that serve markets where long-term reliability (greater than 5 years) is a critical requirement. In many applications, electronics will be subjected to long-term exposure to temperature extremes (high and low), humidity, and combined thermomechanical loading. Key long-term reliability issues should include unacceptable growth of intermetallics at the solder joints due to high temperature exposure, electrochemical degradation of electronics assemblies due to exposure to humidity, formation of tin pest due to extended exposure to low temperature and the effects of combined thermomechanical loading conditions on the PCB assemblies. Thus the objectives of these studies are as follows:

  • Assess and compare lead-free technology against lead-based technology for long-term (5-30 year) reliability.
  • Provide recommendations to reduce reliability risks to reach the long-term reliability goal of 5-30 years of operating life. The key results expected are:
  • failure mechanisms and modes in solder joint failures under short-term vibration, temperature cycling, and combined temperature cycling and vibration conditions
  • long-term life of lead-free assemblies compared with that of lead-based assemblies
  • life of lead-free solder joints (in comparison with Pb-based) under the combined temperature cycling and vibration for several interacting factors: high-volume lead-free assembly process; component types, component finishes (matte Sn, Sn-Cu, and Sn-Bi), PCB pad finishes (Immersion Ag, Immersion Sn, ENIG, and OSP with HASL as control)
  • impact of long-term exposure of assemblies to low and high temperatures
  • impact of PCB degradation due to high temperature lead-free soldering and the lead-free solders (containing Ag) in causing electrochemical migration and corrosion failures

Currently, seven companies, representing aerospace, military, industrial, and telecommunication sectors, have joined this collaborative effort. Companies interested in participating in the studies should contact Prof. Michael Pecht at 301-405-5323, or Dr. Sanka Ganesan at 301-405-0765.
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Using Carbon Fibers in Electronic Interconnects

The CALCE Electronic Products and System Center is working with Xerox to explore the potential of using some unique, high performance carbon fiber composites (CFCs) as electronic interconnects. Various configurations of these conductive plastics have already been shown to provide advantages relating to high performance, low cost, and high reliability in applications such as sliding contacts, switches, and sensors.

The Center is evaluating the electrical and electromechanical properties of the carbon fiber and metal-plated carbon fibers used to make the composites. Preliminary results indicate that thin metal layers on the base carbon fiber can effectively manage the electrical resistivity into the desired range for interconnects. For example, a 1-mm thick nickel layer on a 7-8 mm commercial carbon fiber can produce an effective resistivity of 10-4 W-cm. We employed conventional soldering techniques to generate permanent connections of carbon fiber-based materials to printed circuit boards using both tin-lead and lead-free solders. The robustness and reliability of these unique solder joints are being evaluated.

In addition, CFCs can be used to create temporary or separable interconnects in the form of CFC-to-CFC or CFC-to-metal interfaces. We are investigating the performance and properties of these unique separable contacts by use of laser and heat-processed CFC surfaces, which are paired with gold electrodes under tightly controlled conditions. Contact resistances as a function of normal force are characterized by using the CALCE Automated Contact Resistance Probe. The contact resistance of a 1.6 mm diameter CFC rod mated to a gold-plated surface was identified to fall in the range of 280 to 300 mW at 50 grams normal force. Separable contacts of metalized CFCs to various metal surfaces will also be studied. The early results are suggesting that CFCs may some day be used as IC package-to-board and board-to-board interconnects. please contact Dr. Ji Wu at 301-405-5901.
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CALCE EPSC Six Sigma Workshop

Six Sigma is a systematic, scientific, and information based improvement process for processes such as manufacturing, design and business. The implementation of Six Sigma results in auditable financial benefits for an organization. The continued improvement process consists of five steps in solving a problem or working on a project: define, measure, analyze, improve, control (DMAIC).

The CALCE EPSC has developed tools for training organizations interested in learning and applying Six Sigma tools for their employees. Two CALCE research team members, Dr. Diganta Das, are Six Sigma Black Belts and can help you design a tailored Six Sigma training course for your organization.

On October 18, 2004, CALCE EPSC will hold a workshop on the implementation of Six Sigma at the Greenbelt Marriott. For more information, please contact Dr. Diganta Das at 301-405-5770.
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CALCE EPSC Decision Support Model for Prognostic Health Management

Prognostics is the estimation of remaining life in terms that are useful to the maintenance decision process. All prognostic health management (PHM) approaches are essentially the extrapolation of trends based on recent observations to estimate remaining life. It has been previously pointed out (Engel et al, IEEE Aerospace Conference, 2000) that the calculation of remaining life alone does not provide sufficient information to form a decision or to determine corrective action. Without accommodating the corresponding measures of the uncertainty associated with the calculation, remaining life projections have limited practical value. It is the accommodation of the corresponding uncertainties that is at the heart of being able to develop a business case for PHM.

CALCE EPSC has developed a model applicable to single LRUs (line replaceable units) that enables the determination of when scheduled maintenance makes business sense, and how to optimally interpret prognostic health management damage accumulation or failure precursor monitoring results for applications that are subject to a combination of random failures and failures that have some determinism associated with them. Optimal represents a combination of maximizing availability and/or minimizing life-cycle cost. Specifically the model is targeted at the following questions:

  • How do we determine on an application-specific basis when the reliability of electronics has become deterministic enough to warrant the application of PHM-based scheduled maintenance concepts? Note, we do not mean to imply that determinism in isolation is the criterion for PHM vs. non-PHM solutions.
  • Given that the forecasting ability of PHM is fraught with uncertainties in the sensor data collected, the data reduction methods, the models applied, the material parameters assumed in the models, etc., how can PHM results be interpreted so as to provide value? This boils down to determining optimal safety margins on life consumption monitoring predictions and prognostic distances for health monitoring.
  • How can a business case be constructed to show the usefulness of health monitoring and/or life consumption monitoring for electronic systems? Previous PHM work on electronic systems has demonstrated life-consumption monitoring for electronic systems. However, the previous work has not addressed if (or how) an application’s life-cycle cost can actually be reduced and/or operational availability increased by using PHM. CALCE EPSC is currently working to extend the single LRU decision model to multiple LRU systems.

To obtain further information on the decision support model for prognostic health management, please contact Dr. Peter Sandborn at 301-405-3167.
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Sensor and MEMS Efforts at CALCE EPSC

The rapid evolution of sensor technologies over the preceding twenty years has been enabled by the commensurate evolution of integrated circuits, micro-electromechanical systems, improved passive components, software, communication protocols, and miniature power sources. The development of advanced sensor technologies offers industry a great many new commercial and technical opportunities. To help empower industry to make correct product and technology investment choices, the National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI), in collaboration with the CALCE EPSC, has initiated efforts to develop a sensors technology roadmap. The CALCE EPSC team is leading the sensors technology working group. The working group will analyze established technological and manufacturing capabilities and compare these to existing and anticipated sensor applications across multiple market sectors, including transportation, health care, consumer electronics, industrial and telecommunications infrastructure, defense, security, and space. This process will highlight the gaps that represent obstacles to fully realizing the benefits offered by advanced sensors over the coming decade. These efforts will also incorporate an analysis of the impact of disruptive technologies (carbon nanotubes, micro-fluidics, distributed sensing) on capabilities for existing as well as new applications.

Small embedded sensor technologies represent a major new development for the 21st century, and will eventually become ubiquitous in electronic and mechanical equipment. With integrated data processing, memory, and communications functions, these devices will radically alter our approach to activities as diverse as industrial process engineering, equipment maintenance, military combat, and surveillance. In parallel with our effort with NEMI, CALCE EPSC is proceeding to develop capabilities for exploiting sensors in life-cycle management and product health monitoring. In the field of reliability engineering, embedded sensors will reduce the uncertainty associated with scheduling of maintenance and replacement by providing a complete history of environmental and operational loading conditions, as well as performance history. When coupled with results of CALCE’s physics of failure-based life cycle modeling, the use of embedded sensors will allow improved accuracy and cost effectiveness in decisions concerning product life-cycle management, leading to increased system availability and reliability. Such features could alert users to potential damage during operation, or even predict impending product failure. The benefits of such an approach have already been amply demonstrated in the marketplace by the self-monitoring analysis and reporting technology (SMART) employed in disk drives. These embedded sensing capabilities will also impact end-of-life decisions concerning component recovery and reuse, especially when applied to take-back scenarios, as described in an accompanying article in this newsletter [see CALCE Investigates Product Take-back].

For further information on the sensor and MEMS efforts at the CALCE Electronic Products and Systems Center, please contact Dr. Michael Azarian at 301-405-8126, or Dr. Sanka Ganesan at 301-405-0765.
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Heat Treatment, Tin Whisker Study

A CALCE EPSC survey of electronic component manufacturers indicates that, due to low cost of tin and its compatibility with conventional and lead-free solders, pure tin is the dominant Pb-free option for terminal finish. A major concern related to the use of tin finishes is the formation of tin whiskers, which can cause electrical short failures of electronic hardware and has been associated with costly losses of fielded systems.

Due to the unknown nature of tin whisker growth, some industry segments, especially those who require longer product life and high reliability, are interested in evaluating possible mitigation strategies to retard tin whisker growth. The easiest and fastest mitigation strategy to avoiding pure tin finishes appears to be less possible for equipment manufacturers, since more than half of the component suppliers have already adopted pure matte tin and this trend is expected to continue.

CALCE EPSC has recently conducted a study evaluating the effectiveness of heat treatment on tin-finished specimens in reducing or eliminating tin whisker growth. Test specimens, including matte and bright tin, plated over three different base metals (copper, brass, and alloy 42) were subjected to three heat treatments, including annealing and reflow at two different temperatures. Twenty-four specimens in each category were commercially electroplated (200 micro inches thickness). Electroplating parameters for matte and bright tin included the range of current density (5~20A/cm2) and the plating bath temperature (60~70ºC). A sulfuric acid bath was used for bright tin plating. In order to determine the contamination level of plating, detected contaminations include chloride: 0.074 ppm, bromide: 0.173 ppm, nitrite: 0.180 ppm, and sulphate: 0.074 ppm.

On average, the grain size of matte and bright tin used in this experiment was found to be 4.6µm and 0.9µm respectively. Heat treatments included annealing (approximately 1 week after plating at 150ºC for 1 hour) and two reflow profiles (only temperature exposure without solder or flux). The first reflow profile was based on SnPb solder with peak temperature of 220ºC. The second reflow profile was based on a Pb-free solder with a peak temperature of 260ºC. Following these heat treatments, specimens were split into three groups, with some subjected to temperature cycling (-40 to 80ºC), temperature/humidity exposure (60ºC/95%RH), or room ambient conditions. Whisker growth is being monitored using an optical microscope and environmental-scanning electron microscopy (E-SEM).

The result of this analysis indicated that whisker formation may not necessarily be eliminated by the selected heat treatment strategies. The test data indicated increase in maximum length and density of whiskers over time. Matte tin-plated specimens induced fewer and shorter whiskers, compared to bright tin-plated specimens. The increase in whisker density observed in all cases after 7 months of storage at room ambient indicates that the selected strategies are not effective in retarding tin whisker formation.

To obtain more information regarding CALCE EPSC efforts related to tin whiskers, please contact Dr. Michael Osterman at 301-405-8023.
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CALCE Investigates Product Take-back

The European Directive on Waste from Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) was adopted to promote recycling and recovery of electronic equipment. This directive requires that European Union member states enact national legislation placing financial responsibility for “collection, treatment, reuse, recovery and recycling of WEEE?on equipment producers. Some European countries, including Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands, have already introduced systems for take-back of electronic goods. In addition, several major corporations, such as IBM, HP, and Apple Computer, have proactively established take-back programs in Europe. HP estimates its annual cost for take-back in Germany alone to be 10 to 30 M Euros. The passage of take-back legislation across the EU will create the need for fundamental and far-reaching changes within the electronics industry to minimize the costs associated with compliance. This will include changes to product design, manufacturing, distribution, life- cycle management, and disposal.

CALCE EPSC has therefore initiated a program to study the implications of the WEEE directive with the objective of providing guidance to the electronics industry on measures for cost-effective compliance. A team of CALCE research staff and graduate students has identified a number of issues requiring further study that are in the critical path to successful industry compliance with WEEE. These include:

  • Component Technology. Significant uncertainty remains regarding optimal component selection criteria for recovery and reuse at low cost and high reliability. Standardization across product lines will simplify recovery, though effective health monitoring will be necessary for decision-making regarding reuse vs. disposal upon recovery and ensuring reliability of refurbished and remanufactured products. CALCE EPSC has developed tools and expertise in health monitoring that can help manufacturers minimize the risks associated with component reuse.
  • Design for Disassembly. Due to the high levels of reuse or recycling demanded by WEEE regulations, it is critical to understand how to design and assemble products in order to facilitate disassembly without sacrificing reliability. Special interconnect and assembly features can make recovery easier, including customized embedded devices. Modeling ease of disassembly for alternative designs and recovery sequences favoring high-value components early in the process will improve process efficiency.
  • Supply Chain. Costs associated with collection, transportation, and sorting of products are a significant fraction of the overall costs associated with take-back. The reverse logistics infrastructure in Europe is in an early state of development and will be expanding over the coming years. A thorough capability study of this infrastructure, along with the benefits of collective vs. independent solutions, is needed.
  • Legislative Requirements for Take-back. The EU WEEE directive incorporates a number of exemptions, amendments, and product-specific requirements. With 25 EU member states free to set more restrictive regulations than those specified in the directive, and evolving environmental legislation in the US and Asia, an effective program of compliance must address the complete set of regulations across all markets served.

For more information, contact Dr. Michael Azarian at 301-405-8126.
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Advances in Thermal Management

Increases in die heat flux and power dissipation, which are on the exponential rise at all levels of electronic packaging, combined with more stringent performance and reliability constraints in the future, pose challenges that make thermal management a key enabling technology in the development of microelectronic systems. Many IC packaging failure mechanisms have been found to be dependent upon spatial temperature gradients, temperature cycle magnitude, rate of temperature change, rather than absolute temperature, while die circuit electrical performance can be highly sensitive to operating temperature. While no simple, generic relationship exists that relates electronics reliability to these variables, it is accepted that temperature must be controlled to meet both performance and reliability requirements.

Over the last 15 years, the CALCE EPSC has invested considerable effort in the enhancement and characterization of both conventional and advanced cooling technologies. To respond to the industry’s current demand, two ongoing initiatives at the Center focus on extending the limits of air-cooling and assessing the predictive capability of computational fluids dynamics (CFD) codes for electronic component operational temperature.

CFD Predictive Accuracy. The thermal design of today’s electronic equipment relies significantly on the use of CFD software for the prediction of electronics thermal performance. In the early-to-intermediate product design phase, CFD analysis can be invaluable in selecting a cooling strategy and refining a thermal design by parametric analysis. In the final design phase, detailed analysis of product thermal performance is performed to provide boundary conditions for electrical performance analysis and reliability prediction. In this regard, however, the lack of methods to accurately predict electronics operational temperature, in terms of either absolute temperature, or spatial or temporal temperature gradients, is considered to hamper progress in reliability prediction.

Typically, the turbulent flow modeling capabilities of CFD software dedicated to the thermal analysis of electronics have been confined to zero-equation mixing length or standard two-equation high-Reynolds number k-e eddy viscosity turbulence models. These models meet the criteria of robustness, in terms of promoting stable convergence, and to some extent, universality, which make them popular for practical engineering calculations. They are by far the most widely-used and validated, and are considered as computationally viable in a design environment. Unfortunately, this approach is not entirely satisfactory for modeling the thermal and kinematic complexity of thermofluid problems in forced air-cooled electronic systems.

Using experimental benchmarks, CALCE has investigated the capability of alternative low-Reynolds number eddy viscosity turbulence modeling strategies, available in general-purpose CFD codes, to predict electronic component heat transfer. Significant improvements in predictive accuracy have been obtained relative to the standard mixing length or high-Reynolds number k-e flow models. Such improvements would enable parametric analysis of product thermal performance to be undertaken with greater confidence, and contribute to the generation of more accurate temperature boundary conditions for electronics reliability assessment.

This could ultimately help reduce the current dependency on experimental prototyping.

Apart from the prediction of operational temperature in application environments, the value of CFD in optimizing electronic component assembly processes, such as convective reflow soldering, and optimizing the thermal loads imposed in accelerated reliability tests, such as powered air temperature cycling, has also been demonstrated.

Future work will focus on the development of improved modeling methodologies for fan-, EMC screen- and vent- generated airflows, to enable more accurate prediction of airflows within electronic enclosures.

Enhancing the Limits of Air Cooling. Due to stringent cost and reliability constraints, air cooling will remain an important thermal management approach for many electronic products in the foreseeable future. Considerable strides have taken place in electronics thermal management over the last 15 years. Despite a continued perception that the limits of air cooling have been reached, the heat fluxes obtained by air cooling today could only be achieved using liquid cooling in the late 1980s. In this context, proposing universal heat flux limits for air cooling is misleading. CALCE is addressing several key thermal management areas to help extend the limits of air cooling.

Air cooling is traditionally associated with the use of heat sinks, which are the most commonly-employed, cost-effective electronics thermal management hardware. Heat sinks function by extending the surface area of heat dissipating surfaces through the use of fins. Their design and analysis is one of the most extensive research areas in electronics cooling. Advances in heat sink cooling performance have been achieved through progress in manufacturing technology and to a lesser extent, fan design, thereby resulting in more efficient heat removal from a given rectilinear volume. However, an efficient thermal design needs to focus on the complete heat transfer chain of an electronic system, from the heat dissipating components acting as thermal source, to the environment external to the system enclosure. Apart from convective and radiative heat transfer optimization, key issues in advancing heat sink thermal performance therefore include:

  • component-to-heat sink interface thermal contact resistance minimization, which can be comparable to the actual heat sink thermal resistance
  • integration of heat spreading technologies, such as heat pipes and high thermal conductivity materials, to minimize heat sink base temperature rise
  • integration of hybrid cooling solutions such as phase change materials (PCMs) to manage peak transient heat loads
  • minimization of heat sink surface fouling, the impact of which on thermal resistance is becoming a major warrantee issue in computer products

Ongoing research at CALCE is addressing each of these areas. In parallel with these initiatives, liquid cooling-based solutions are being developed for applications where air cooling alone is not sufficient to meet system thermal design specifications.

For further information on these efforts, please contact Dr. Peter Rodgers at 301-405-8126.
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Major Grants Awarded to Prof. B. Han

A three-year research grant, “Extension of Displacement Measurement Techniques into Nano-mechanics Domain,?funded by Semiconductor Research Corporation, ($300,000) was awarded for development of a measurement technique for nano-scale deformation. The results of the proposed research will be utilized to provide a mechanical reliability guideline for interconnect technology for the current node and to identify potential mechanical reliability issues for the 50-nm technology node and beyond.

“Development of Experimental Apparatus using far Infrared Fizeau Interferometry,?funded by Intel Corporation, a two-year research grant ($200,000) awarded for development of a laboratory device to measure warpage of packages and assemblies without any sample preparation. The results of the proposed research will be used to characterize the warpage behavior of current and future high performance packaging solutions.

For further information, please contact Dr. Bongtae Han at 301-405-5255.
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Prof. M. Pecht Made Honorary Professor

Dr. Michael Pecht, the George Dieter Chair Professor of Mechanical Engineering, was granted Honorary Professor status at the Jiao Tong University in Shanghai on June 8, 2004. The professorship will enable him to establish a program at Jiao Tong on bio-electro-mechanical health monitoring that will incorporate electronics and mechanical engineering concepts with Chinese and Western medical philosophies. For further information, please contact Dr. Michael Pecht at 301-405-5278.
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New CALCE Research Scientists

Dr. Peter Rodgers joined the CALCE EPSC as a Research Professor, where he supports the Center’s electronics thermal management activities. He has extensive research and product development experience in the thermal analysis of electronic equipment. Dr. Rodgers was formerly with the Nokia Research Center, Finland, and Electronics Thermal Management Ltd., Ireland, where he consulted on a wide range of aspects in electronics cooling, spanning integrated circuit (IC) packaging to facility cooling. He holds a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from the University of Limerick, Ireland.

Dr. Michael H. Azarian joined CALCE EPSC as a Research Scientist. He holds a Ph.D. in Materials Science and Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, a Masters degree in Metallurgical Engineering and Materials Science from Carnegie Mellon, and a Bachelors degree in Chemical Engineering from Princeton University. He brings to CALCE 13 years of professional experience in the data storage, advanced materials, and fiber optics industries, having worked for Philips Research Laboratories in Eindhoven, the Netherlands; W. L. Gore & Associates, Inc. in Elkton, MD; and Bookham Technology in San Jose, CA, as well as several start-up companies. He was most recently Manager of Quality and Reliability at Bookham Technology in San Jose, CA. His areas of expertise include reliability of photonic components, failure analysis, and tribology of the magnetic head-disk interface.
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